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Application of methods of quantitative risk analysis

At a stage of quantitative risk analysis numerical values of probability of approach of risk events and volume of the damage caused by them or benefit are calculated.

Considering all set of methods of quantitative risk analysis, one may say, that application of a concrete method depends on a set of factors:

  • for each type of the analyzed risk there are methods of the analysis and specific features of their realization. For example, in the analysis of the technical production risks connected with equipment failure the greatest distribution was gained by methods of creation of trees;
  • for risk analysis an essential role is played by the volume and quality of basic data. So, if there is a considerable database after the ROF loudspeaker, application of methods of simulation modeling and neural networks is possible. Otherwise most likely application of expert methods or methods of a fuzzy logic;
  • at risk analysis it is essentially important to consider dynamics of the indicators affecting risk level. In case of risk analysis in the markets in state of shock a number of methods is simply inapplicable;
  • when choosing methods of the analysis it is necessary to take into account not only depth of design data, but also the horizon of forecasting of the indicators affecting risk level;
  • the urgency and technical capabilities of carrying out the analysis is of great importance. If at the disposal of the analyst there is a solid computing potential and a stock of time, training of neural networks, modeling in a Monte Carlo method, etc. is possible;
  • the efficiency of application of methods of risk analysis increases at formalization of risk for the purpose of mathematical modeling of its impact on results of activity of the enterprise. Now not only economic systems, but also industrial complexes reached such complexity that often calculation of their stability is impossible without probability theory elements;
  • it is necessary to consider requirements of the state monitoring bodies to forming of the reporting on risks. In case at the standard level use of methods of simulation modeling is required, their application is obligatory.