Expert risk analysis is applied at the initial stages of work with the project in case the volume of initial information is insufficient for quantitative efficiency evaluation (the error of results exceeds 30%) and project risks.
Advantages of expert risk analysis are: lack of need for exact basic data and expensive software, an opportunity to carry out the assessment before calculation of efficiency of the project and also simplicity of calculations.
It is necessary to carry to the main shortcomings of this method: difficulty in involvement of independent experts and subjectivity of estimates.
The experts involved to risks assessment have to:
- to have access to all available developer of project information;
- to have the sufficient level of creativity of thinking;
- to have the necessary level of knowledge in the corresponding subject domain;
- to be free from personal preferences concerning the project;
- to have an opportunity to estimate any number of the identified risks.
The algorithm of expert risk analysis has the following sequence:
- the limit acceptable for the organization implementing this project is determined by each type of risks.
The limit of risks is defined on hundred to a mark scale;
- the differentiated assessment of level of competence of experts which is confidential is established, if necessary.
The mark is put down on a ten-mark scale;
- risks are estimated by experts in terms of the probability of approach of a risk event (in unit shares) and dangers of these risks to a successful completion of the project (on hundred to a mark scale);
- the estimates which are put down by experts in each type of risks are tabulated by the developer of the project.
In them integrated level is determined by each type of risks;
- the integrated level of risks received as a result of expert poll and limit for this type of risk are compared and the decision on the acceptability of this type of risk for the developer of the project is made;
- in case the accepted limit of one or several types of risks is lower than the received integrated values, the complex of the actions directed to decrease in influence of the revealed risks on success of project implementation is developed and repeated risk analysis is performed.