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Method of the morphological analysis

The benefit of a method of the morphological analysis consists that it is feasible in the presence of the small volume of information on the studied problem. It is obviously possible to use this method when studying the risks connected with opening of the new markets, forming of new requirements i.e. in all branches of economy in the absence of analogs, high risk.

Morphological approach represents an ordered method of consideration of a subject and obtaining the systematized information on all possible solutions of the studied problem. In the course of the analysis all objects break into groups, each of which is exposed to in-depth examination. Such approach allows to accumulate data for the subsequent researches. Morphological approach is connected with structural interrelations between objects, the phenomena and concepts.

One of basic aspects of a method of the morphological analysis is the generality which assumes use of complete set of knowledge of an object. The basic principle of the morphological analysis does not allow to exclude from consideration, to reject objects and processes, risk sources without preliminary exhaustive analysis. Therefore the total absence of any preliminary judgment is necessary.

We will consider stages of carrying out the morphological analysis:

  1. Accurate information risk problem.
  2. The careful analysis of all parameters important in terms of the solution of this problem of risk.
  3. Creation of the "morphological box" which is potentially containing all decisions. Such "box" is multidimensional space.
    If the problem is solved, then each office of such "box" will contain only one possible decision, or will not have it at all.
    Emergence of two and more decisions in one office specifies that not all parameters were considered or entered into a system therefore search of the missed parameters is run.
  4. "The morphological box" is under construction in the form of "tree" or a matrix in which cages the corresponding parameters are placed. Consecutive connection of one such parameter of the first level with one of parameters of the subsequent levels represents one of possible problem resolutions. Total number of possible decisions is equal to the work of numbers of the parameters taken in the lines. As a part of decisions is almost impracticable, the real number of decisions will be a little smaller. On the basis of such set of total characteristics of an object it is possible by shifts and various combinations to develop probabilistic characteristics which do not exist, but can exist.
  5. Studying of all received decisions, in terms of their functional value, - the following most difficult stage. At effective objectives the efficiency of various decisions can graphically be introduced in the form of so-called "topological characteristic cards". There are no formal methods for determination of functional value of various decisions.
  6. Choice of the most desirable specific decisions and their realization.

Thus, as a result of the morphological analysis new information on the studied object and risks inherent in it is developed, possible alternatives of risk management for each component risk problem are developed.