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Risk factors

Risk factors are defined on the basis of the analysis political, economic and financial credit policy, both the certain countries, and the international community in general. Factors of risks serve as a kernel of the so-called theory of "Firm-Foundation Theory" and play a paramount role in decision making about investment of the innovation projects by the large companies owning the big long-term diversified investment portfolios.

Factors of risks - one of the most difficult parts and at the same time one of the key areas of work on risk management. It is much more difficult to carry out factor analysis, than any other as the same factors have an unequal impact on the market in various conditions or can from deciding to become absolutely insignificant. It is necessary to know the interrelation and mutual influence of various factors reflecting relations between various states, history of their development, to define cumulative result of these or those economic measures and to establish connection between events absolutely untied at first sight.

The most important group of fundamental factors is made by political. Political factors of risk include:

  • wars, the conflicts, explosive situations and any statements of political figures concerning aggravation of a situation;
  • resignation or change of the government, elections (change of the government conducts to a possibility of change of a political and economic course of the country affects attractiveness of capital investments in its economy;
  • resignation of the central banker or change someone from holding important political or financial posts cause immediate market reaction);
  • nationalization threat;
  • change of a political system, etc.

The complete economic analysis is carried out at three levels. Originally in its framework the state of the economy in general is considered. It allows to find out how general situation is favorable for investment and gives the chance to define the major factors determining the specified situation. After studying of an environment in general the analysis of certain spheres of the market for the purpose of identification of those from them which in the developed general economic conditions are optimum for the room of means from the point of view of chosen the investment purposes and priorities is performed. At the same time the condition of the industries and subsectors of economy is considered. Identification of the most preferable directions of investment of funds will create a basis for the choice in their framework of concrete types of attachments, investments into which would provide the most full implementation of objectives. Therefore at the third level of the analysis specific innovation programs, projects, a condition of separate firms and companies whose equity or debt share instruments are traded on the market are in detail lit. It gives the chance to resolve an issue of what tools are attractive and of what it is necessary to get rid.

Studying of the general economic situation at the first analysis stage is based on consideration of the indicators characterizing dynamics of production, level of economic activity, consumption and accumulation, influence of inflationary tendencies, a financial condition of the state. At the same time attempts to install concrete mechanisms of impact on a situation in economy of the major political and social events are made. Identification of the factors defining an economic situation in general and directly affecting the market allows having defined general terms against the background of which it is necessary to pursue investment policy and to build forecasts concerning the prospects of their change. As the macroeconomic situation is a subject of close attention from wide circles of economists, when carrying out се fundamental analysis there is an opportunity to rely on rather deep studies and conclusions which are drawn by leading experts in the field.

The general economic situation reflects a state in the majority of spheres of economy, however each of these spheres submits not only the general, but also the private (internal) regularities. Respectively, the conclusions drawn at the macrolevel need in relation to them a specification and adjustment. Even if the analysis of a situation in general shows that it is adverse for investment, then it does not mean that it is impossible to find the industries in which it would be possible to prevent with big benefit money.

During the industry analysis comparison of the indicators reflecting dynamics of production, sales amounts, size of trade and raw inventories, price level and the salary, profit, savings both by the industries and in comparison with similar indicators in general on national economy is performed. At the same time in the countries with developed economy analysts rely on the standard indexes characterizing a situation in various industries.

After the most suitable industries for the room of means are defined, from all variety of the companies entering them and the existing innovation projects it is necessary to choose such which allow to realize the set investment objects.

Thus, the factor of risks assumes accounting of the past in dynamics, economic knowledge in general and in particular, allowing to think on a substantial scale and in time to consider and evaluate the happening high-quality changes.