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General economic risks

General economic risks are a group of risks that reflect the internal impact on public administration through common economic factors. Such as rising unemployment rates, inflation, interest rates, budget deficits, declining GDP growth, domestic investment and others. These risks affect both the entire internal structure of the elements of the system under study and the associated risks and factors of their occurrence.

General economic risks are divided into:

  • the risk of a decline in GDP growth;
  • risk of increase; domestic debt;
  • risk of budget deficit;
  • the risk of rising inflation;
  • risk of changes in domestic interest rates;
  • risk of internal market structure change;
  • the risk of rising unemployment;
  • the risk of a fall in the domestic financial system;
  • risk of raw material dependence
  • other risks related to domestic economic factors.

Indicators of identification of this risk group are:

  • level and structure of GDP, GNI;
  • domestic investment;
  • inflation rate;
  • average real wages;
  • levels of employment, unemployment;
  • number of economically (not) active population;
  • average interest rates;
  • composition and structure of federal budget revenues and expenditures;
  • the volume and structure of domestic debt;
  • indicators of financial system development;
  • many other indicators for assessing the overall domestic state of the economy.

Ways to evaluate general economic risks:

  • analysis of the dynamics and structure of domestic debt;
  • monitoring of the state of the budget system;
  • GDP structure assessment, GNI;
  • analysis of labour resources and wages;
  • monitoring of internal investment activity and attractiveness;
  • monitoring and forecasting of inflation;
  • assessing the status and development of the financial system;
  • monitoring of trends in interest rates;
  • use of updated planning, forecasting, budgeting and monitoring systems;
  • other modern means of monitoring general economic indicators.

Methods of managing general economic risks:

  • restructuring of domestic debt;
  • development of events to attract domestic investment;
  • improving labour and employment policies;
  • the development of public-private partnerships;
  • finding new sources of budget replenishment;
  • financing development priorities;
  • changing the tax burden;
  • creation of events for the development of small and medium-sized businesses;
  • phasing out commodity economic development;
  • support for the future development of the financial system;
  • finding and implementing modern methods of planning, forecasting, budgeting and monitoring;
  • creation of reserve funds, insurance, etc.