+ Homepage
+ News

+ Concept of risk
- Main lines of risk
- Uncertainty and situation of risk
- Uncertainty reasons
- Types of uncertainty and their classification
- Risk nature
- Risk factors
- Risk functions
- Characteristics of risk
- Riskology

+ Types of risks
+ Risk analysis
+ Risks insurance
+ Risk management
+ Risk management methods
+ Risk management system
+ Articles on risk management
+ Catalog of magazines on risk
+ Tests
+ Contact
+ Site map

Types of uncertainty and their classification

Of the Condition of uncertainty, taking place at any kinds of business activity are caused by the fact that economic systems in the course of the functioning test dependence on a number of the reasons which and can be systematized in the form of the scheme of uncertainty.

On uncertainty emergence time are distributed on retrospective, current and perspective. Need of accounting of a factor of time at assessment of cost efficiency of the made decisions is caused by the fact that both the effect, and costs can be distributed in time. The costs, equal in size, which are differently distributed in time provide unequal useful result of this or that type (economic, social, political, etc.).

On uncertainty emergence factors are subdivided into economic and political. These types of uncertainty are closely connected among themselves, and often in practice it is rather difficult to divide them.

Economic uncertainty are caused by both adverse and positive changes in the environment of economic units or national economy, concern them: uncertainty of market demand, weak predictability of market prices, uncertainty of the market offer, insufficiency or on the contrary surplus of information on the acting competitors, etc.

Political uncertainty are caused by change of the political situation influencing business activity.

Natural uncertainty is described by set of factors among which can be: climatic, weather conditions, different hindrances (atmospheric, electromagnetic and others).

The following type is uncertainty of the external environment. In the economic analysis of business activity concepts of external and internal environment are entered. The internal environment includes the factors caused by activity of the entrepreneur and his contacts. The external environment is introduced by factors which are not connected directly with activity of the entrepreneur and have broader social, demographic, political, economic and other character.

The special type of uncertainty takes place in the presence of conflict situations as which can be: strategy and tactics of the persons participating in this or that tender, the tender, an auction; actions of competitors, price policy of monopolists, oligopolist, etc. The special group is made by tasks in which problems of incoincident interests and the multicriteria choice of optimal solutions in the conditions of uncertainty are considered.

Availability of uncertainty considerably complicates process of the choice of optimal solutions and can result in unpredictable results. In practice when carrying out the economic analysis in many cases try not to notice the available uncertainty and operate (make the decision) on a basis on the basis of the determined models. In other words, it is supposed that the factors influencing the made decisions are known precisely. Actually, the reality often does not meet such expectations. Therefore the policy of the choice of effective solutions without uncontrollable factors in many cases leads to considerable losses of economic, social and other contents.

Considering uncertainty which is the risk cause in economic activity, it should be noted that allocation and its studying in relation to process economic, commercial, managerial, financial and other types of activity is extremely necessary as at the same time the practical situation is displayed, when there is no an opportunity to perform the listed types of activity in conditions which cannot be unambiguously defined.